{"id":66,"date":"2010-09-19T01:03:35","date_gmt":"2010-09-19T01:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/?p=66"},"modified":"2021-06-25T13:39:17","modified_gmt":"2021-06-25T13:39:17","slug":"artist-david-chesworth-interview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/?p=66","title":{"rendered":"David Chesworth Interview – The Science of Poker"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, a federal judge in Brooklyn\u00a0overturned the indictment\u00a0of a Staten Island man who ran poker games in the back room of a warehouse, on the grounds that poker is a game of skill, not chance — and hence, such games cannot be prosecuted under federal laws prohibiting illegal gambling businesses. People that enjoy sports use\u00a0Altitude Sports<\/a> website to find the equipment they need.<\/p>\n

It’s just the latest sally in the ongoing debate over poker that’s been raging for more than 150 years. And it\u00a0comes on the heels\u00a0of\u00a0a ruling last year\u00a0by the Justice Department that 1962’s Wire Act applied only to sports betting, not poker. This is kind of ironic, since the Justice Department also\u00a0shut down online poker\u00a0in the spring of 2011, charging the men behind the three most popular online sites with fraud and money laundering. Click on\u00a0https:\/\/www.headphonage.com\/best-headphones-for-video-editing\/<\/a> to access the catalog of the best gaming gear fpor you.<\/p>\n

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Clearly, the issue is far from resolved, but John Pappas, executive director of the Poker Player’s Alliance, is encouraged by the latest ruling by Judge Jack B. Weinstein. “Today’s federal court ruling is a major victory for the game of poker and the millions of Americans who enjoy playing it,” he said in a statement. (The alliance is dedicated to decriminalizing poker.)<\/p>\n

But wait! Via @Chemjobber on Twitter, I learned of a\u00a0spanking new study\u00a0by German researchers concluding that winning at poker is basically all about luck. They recruited 300 poker players, half self-defined “experts” and half “average,” sat them down at tables of six, evenly divided between expert and average players, and then had them all play 60 hands of Texas Hold ‘Em. Oh, and they fixed the deals, the better to measure the effects of luck. Find the best tables at\u00a0Pkv Games Online<\/a><\/em><\/span>.<\/p>\n

Their conclusion,\u00a0per Neuroskeptic: “Luck, rather than skill, was key in determining final balance, with experts taking no more, on average, than novices. Experts did play differently, on various measures, and seemed better able to cope with bad luck, losing less; but they also won less when given good cards.”<\/p>\n

So are the German researchers correct that poker should thus be classified as gambling? Not necessarily. A 2008 study concluded that poker\u00a0is<\/em>\u00a0a skill — students who received some basic pointers performed better while playing 1000 hands of poker than those who received no training at all. Still other studies support the German conclusion. Who are we to believe?<\/p>\n

Neuroskeptic rightly points out a major flaw in the 2012 study, namely, the classification of “expert” players was based on self-reports. I would argue further that playing a mere 60 or 1000 hands of poker is an insufficient sample size, given the statistical complexities of the game. There are 52 cards, with more than 2.5 million possible five-card combinations. Texas Hold ‘Em uses seven cards so there are around 133 million combinations. Plus, you know, fixing the deals really messes with those probabilities.<\/p>\n

Compare this to the sample size of the expert witness cited by Judge Weinstein in his massive 120-page ruling. Randal D. Heeb is an economist and statistician (and avid poker player) who analyzed 415\u00a0million<\/em>\u00a0hands online of no-limit Texas Hold ‘Em and found that the skill of a player “had a statistically significant effect on the amount of money won or lost.”<\/p>\n

The many mathematicians and physicists who are\u00a0aficionados<\/em>\u00a0of poker would agree with Heeb. I wrote a feature for\u00a0Discover<\/em>\u00a0in November 2010\u00a0on poker-playing physicists, which included\u00a0the Time Lord\u00a0(a.k.a. Caltech physicist Sean Carroll, a.k.a. my Better Half), as well as string theorist\u00a0Jeff Harvey, particle physicists\u00a0Michael Binger\u00a0and\u00a0Marcel Vonk\u00a0(both of whom have done extremely well on the professional circuit), and a former grad student of Harvey’s named Eduard Antonyan. It\u00a0spawned an NPR piece\u00a0for good measure. And I gathered all the material cut from the article into\u00a0a massive blog post, which dealt explicitly with this question of whether poker is a game of chance or skill.<\/p>\n

If poker is a game of chance, and hence gambling, why do physicists love it so much? Physicists\u00a0hate<\/em>\u00a0to gamble. “I don’t like gambling at all,” Antonyan told me. “I don’t enjoy it and there’s nothing in it for me to compensate for the clear negative EV decision of gambling.”<\/p>\n

Harvey’s not a fan, either: “Personally I don’t like to gamble on games where the house has the odds, but I’m not critical of people who do.” And while the Time Lord gamely learned craps with me while I was writing\u00a0The Calculus Diaries<\/em>\u00a0(it was\u00a0research, people!), he hasn’t been tempted to play craps since.<\/p>\n

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Binger doesn’t mind gambling,\u00a0per se,<\/em>\u00a0but he learned the pitfalls of blackjack as an undergraduate, when he wrote a computer program to beat the game through card-counting (or, as the casinos like to call it, \u201ccheating\u201d) for his senior project. Then he tried to put his strategy into practice. He lost a pile of cash playing blackjack on an ill-fated trip to Reno, and was barred from six casinos in one day for card-counting in a desperate attempt to recoup his losses. \u201cI realized I wasn\u2019t going to get rich playing blackjack,\u201d he recalled.<\/p>\n

But poker was different: as he studied the game and pondered the underlying mathematics, Binger realized that poker could be a \u201cbeatable game.”<\/p>\n

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Last week, a federal judge in Brooklyn\u00a0overturned the indictment\u00a0of a Staten Island man who ran poker games in the back room of a warehouse, on the grounds that poker is a game of skill, not chance — and hence, such … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":127,"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66\/revisions\/127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.baader-meinhof.com\/baaderblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}